THE LOTTERY: Everything you ever wanted to know about what your lottery number means, and more! (UPDATED)
NOTE: We don’t want to keep you waiting all night, so we’re going to start rolling this out piece by piece, starting from the top: 30 and 20-point info all here, with the final portion to come soon. (Last update: 1:30 a.m.) 2:20 a.m.: It’s all here now—have at it.
Hello again, fellow Columbians, and welcome back to The Shaft’s 2010 lottery breakdown. Housing’s list is public as of this morning, and we’ve been tallying, analyzing, and crunching numbers all day.
As always, we’ll do our best to answer all questions in the comments. And if you think we’ve made a mistake, please tell us—it’s quite possible we slipped up somewhere. Anyway, it’s all here, after the jump.
Before we begin, a very important note regarding confusion on the list of lottery numbers. Unlike last year, Housing hasn’t yet listed which groups are in for EC Exclusion suites (ECX) separately from regular suites (important because these pick after all 30-point groups as well as senior regroup, regardless of the point value the ECX group has—for example, 30/1500 all seniors picks before 30/500 ECX). We’re working on getting this information, but at the moment, projections for five-person suites are a little bit murky because we have no way of knowing which five-person groups are standard and which are ECX.
Another note: Earlier today (and several other times throughout the day—thanks, readers!), we received a link to a Housing calculator, kindly built by computer whiz Blake Arnold, CC SEAS ’11 (and, full disclosure—a suitemate of mine!). After reports of errors surfaced, though, we elected to hold it until we’d run the numbers ourselves. Appears the kinks have been worked out. Here’s the link—definitely worth checking out.
Six-person groups: There are a scarily large number of these—47, to be precise. There are seven EC six-person high rises and 40 EC six-person townhouses, but a few are lost to RAs, and a few more are lost to special interest housing. It’s possible that one of the very top groups will drop to general selection to snag the Watt studio singles, but probably the cutoff here for everything EC sixes is around 2500. Groups below that, don’t despair yet—it’s possible that some of the groups in the 2000-2500 range will elect to drop to Senior Regroup rather than take one of the dozen six-person townhouses that have one double. The others will have to settle for the new six-person suites in Ruggles (with two doubles) or the one suite in Claremont, or drop to Regroup.
Five-person groups: As we said, still in the dark a little bit here. There are 54 groups, but we don’t know how many of those are ECX. There are seven EC all-single high rises and 10 fives in Hogan—those are the choice options, and will probably both be gone between 30/1000 and 30/1500. After that, we could see as many as 37 of the 56 ECX suites fall to 30-point groups—more if other seniors regroup to get them, less if all-senior groups don’t want to take a double and instead regroup toward something else. We’ll update this as soon as we have an updated list.
Four-person groups: 58 of these, which is a rather terrifying prospect. Six available in Claremont, 10 in EC (though a few gone to RAs), 16 in Hogan (with a few to RAs, again), eight in Ruggles (a few to RAs, once more). So probably half of these groups are actually going to get four-person suites. EC/Ruggles/Hogan should be gone by 30/1200 or so. Claremont will probably drop some, but anyone in the back half of the 30-point draw here should get ready for Regroup.
Three-person groups: Eight of these, which should get everyone into either a Claremont three or a partial suite with an RA in Hogan, Ruggles, or EC, which are likely the targets of groups with RA friends.
Two-person groups: 84 of these, it would appear. These will axe all 35 twos in EC, the 11 two-bedroom apartments in Watt, and most of the dozen one-bedroom Watt apartments, too. All the high-demand H, K, and C lines in Woodbridge should go, too, and some of the medium-demand lines. Which of these options goes where will depend, as it always does, on personal preference—all of the above have various pros and cons (except the two-bedrooms in Watt—those are gold, gone by 30/1000 at the absolute latest)—but even the worst off here can rest easy with either a Watt one-bedroom or a Woodbridge medium-demand line.
20-30 point groups
So, the in-betweens—combined junior-senior groups, mostly, and more ECX. NOT 30-point groups (see above) or 20-point groups (see below).
Five-person groups: 18 more of these in-between—probably all ECX (again, we can’t yet be sure). Now, if NO seniors regroup to take ECX suites, these groups could all snag them. Unfortunately for these folks, the chances of that occurring are somewhere south of zero. Our best guess for now: the 15 groups with 26.67 point values sneak into ECX suites, while any ECX group with a point value lower than that misses out and has to drop to General Selection.
Four-person groups: A bunch of these, and we can’t quite figure out why. Ruggles, EC, and Hogan will be long gone. It’s conceivable, with a stretch, that a Claremont suite might slip through. Beyond that, perhaps they have eyes on the groups that can fill up RA townhouses in EC? Hard to know. Slim pickings here, though.
Two-person groups: Another nine of these—should snag any remaining Watt one-bedrooms and Woodbridge medium or low-demand suites. After Senior Regroup and this round, the prime Watt/Woodbridge leftovers will likely be next to nil for junior pairs.
Eight-person groups: All we can say here is wow. No fewer than 24 (!) groups of eight are in play, and there are only 14 suites available. Sorry juniors, but the days of an all-but-guaranteed spot in Ruggles with an eight-person group are long gone. (Advance prediction for next year: some juniors start luring seniors by offering up the singles in order to boost point values—we thought that might happen this year, but this might serve as a wake-up call.) One of the top groups might drop to General Selection, but the cutoff here should be with one of the three groups clustered around 20/2000. (It really is painful to see this—yours truly snuck in last year with a number that wouldn’t sniff Ruggles this time around. Our thoughts go out to rising juniors in this boat!)
Six-person groups: We applaud the gumption of the juniors gunning, presumably, for the new Ruggles six-person suites. With seven suites available and only five groups, seems like chances are reasonable. Desperate seniors might jump in, but we continue to find it hard to believe that groups of seniors would accept a suite with not one but two small doubles.
Two-person groups: It’s possible that a few Woodbridge suites from the low-demand lines slide through to the top few groups here, but don’t count on even that. Most, then, will turn to Watt studio doubles. Some will drop to General Selection, certainly, as old junior standbys such as McBain walk-throughs have been renovated out of existence. Some others to Nussbaum, and maybe some to Broadway.
The rest: Scattered fives and fours aren’t likely to have much luck (threes down here might still sneak into the RA suites they’re likely targeting, though)—again, maybe something in Claremont, by chance, or the odd five-person suite on the first floor of Ruggles.
Sophomores, down here, it is finally your turn.
Seven-person suites: Unfortunately, those 10 seven-person suites in Claremont that were once the domain of lucky all-sophomore groups this year likely won’t get to any. With 12 groups of seven before the 10-point round even starts, they’ll likely all be gone to groups that wisely pulled in juniors, unless some of those drop to General Selection.
Pairs, and anything else left: For 10-point groups, this is pretty much everybody else—any groups of eight or six or four are almost certainly using the Sophomore Pair-Up option, so they can be counted among the dozens of groups of two to pick here. Where do they go? In very rough order: Broadway, Nussbaum, Furnald, McBain, Schapiro, EC sixth floor, Harmony, Wien. But there really is no order there—all of these dorms have some rooms that are better than others, so to each his own. (Yours truly, again, bemoans the fact that McBain rooms are now virtually all the same—no more hidden gems there.) Just do yourselves a favor and look around at all the floor plans when you get into the housing cage to make sure you’re seeing all the options.
We really do feel for rising sophomores—it’s probably going to be slim pickings once it gets to that point. But fear not—just try to pick onto the same floor with a group of friends, and you’ll be fine. (And enjoy your last few weeks in Carman—you may never have it that good again.)
That is, in fact, a wrap. Thanks for reading—hope you enjoyed all this. We’ll have more the rest of this week on the lottery, appointment times, and everything else housing-related. Questions in the comments welcome—we’ll keep answering and updating.
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