THE LOTTERY, 2011: Everything your number means, and everything you wanted to know! (UPDATED)
We’ve written about the dorms, the cutoff history, things to remember, and offered a calculator for pinpointing room possibilities in General Selection. But now that lottery numbers are public, we start to move away from conjecture and toward real number-crunching. So here we go—The Shaft’s complete 2011 lottery number breakdown, split up by point value and then by group size, after the jump.
There’s a lot here, so if you get through it all and have questions, let us know in the comments. And if you think you’ve found a mistake, please let us know—we’ve been staring at these numbers for hours on end.
The old caveats—our tallies for suites available are based on the cutoff history numbers (with a few exceptions) and with some adjustments made for space held out of the lottery. Housing tells us that these numbers stand to be the ones that go up on the infamous whiteboard next week for selection, but we’ve seen in the past that sometimes other suites get held back at the last minute. If you’re right around a likely cutoff, be prepared with alternate options. Also, we make reference several times below to groups going in as a certain size maybe doing so to pick into an RA suite—we’ll have a separate post later this week explaining how that works. (In short, a six-person suite that has an RA and his or her rider in two of the six spots can be selected by a four-person group for the other four spots, usually friends of the RA. A six-person group can’t pick there.) It’s also nearly impossible to get a whole lot more regarding General Selection out of this data because that depends so, so much on how many people drop down from Suite Selection, which is why we’ve stuck to analysis of that round here. We’ll have more on General Selection as we get closer to it, though.
(Also, if you are—for whatever reason—curious as to how this breakdown compares to last year’s, here’s the one from 2010.)
These are groups made up entirely of rising seniors.
Six-person groups: Only 36 groups of this size this year, which is a marked decrease from the 47 that entered last year (only for the extras to have to drop to Senior Regroup). With the 40 East Campus townhouses cut to 28 after several are held out, plus seven EC six-person high rise suites, nearly all the groups of this size will get into EC. Pairing up is always the safest option, and it looks like a large number of seniors decided that was the way to go this year. (Advance prediction for next year—memories of this year’s drop bring a fresh resurgence of six-person groups.) Cutoffs will depend on preference and whether any last-minute suites are held out (two from the high rise line were held out on lottery day, last year). But this looks promising right now. The high rise number may rise to 30/1000 or so (UPDATE: or even towards 30/500 if groups REALLY prefer these to townhouses this year) with every floor now renovated. The all-singles townhouse number likely
won’t change much from the 30/1700 range will actually get a little bit easier (anywhere from 30/2000 to 30/2500 or thereabouts depending on preferences), and the number for six-person townhouses with a double could scrape the bottom of the 30-point barrel. If some of the groups down there opt to go to Regroup rather than take a townhouse with a double, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a lucky six-person group could snag the last one in the Regroup round, something that would have been unthinkable last year (and surely will be next year again). Probably not likely, though. UPDATE: One of these groups will also grab the lone all-single six-person suite on the top floor of Hogan.
Five-person groups: There are 47 groups like this, up from 31 last year. That’s likely due to the elimination of the EC Exclusion rule—last year, there were also 23 ECX groups with a 30-point value. But it’s a bit surprising so many seniors opted to make this the risk they’re willing to take—there are only seven all-single five-person high rises in EC, and 10 fives in Hogan. (The 16th group is 30/969, so if another one of these suites isn’t available for whatever reason, the cutoff could be worse than 30/1000 for both options—if not, it falls back to 30/1391 or shortly thereafter.) That’s going to leave as many as 30 groups of seniors forced to decide whether they’re willing to swallow a tiny double in a former-ECX suite rather than drop to Regroup. Again, the seniors in six-person groups should jump for joy that so many people went in this direction—very clear now that the six-person route would have been a better gamble for several more groups. With 56 former ECX suites, a fairly healthy chunk will probably be axed here (although with the huge number of 30-point pairs, there may not be many better options, so perhaps an extremely healthy chunk—see below), but a few should still eventually drop to groups with lower point values.
Four-person groups: 58 of these—exactly the same number as last year. After accounting for RAs, though, it looks like there’ll only be THREE of these suites available in Ruggles (cut from eight), 13 in Hogan (cut from 16), six in EC townhouses (cut from 10), and six in Claremont. That means the first three of those options are likely ALL off the board by 30/1100 or so, and Claremont (assuming it goes after Ruggles/Hogan/EC) as early as 30/1300 or so. An awful lot of four-point groups should get ready to drop to Regroup, where they’ll just add to the huge number of 30-point pairs.
Three-person groups: Only one of these. With only three Claremont threes available after RAs take out three of the six, this is good news for groups of three later on.
Two-person groups: A mind-boggling 119 pairs! Last year, we only had 84. So that’s the 11 Watt two-bedroom apartments (anywhere from 30/593 to 30/1000, depending on preference, as sometimes the one on the first floor hangs on for a while), all 25 EC two-person flats (after removing 10 for RAs and such), and then—wait for it—LITERALLY ALL OF WOODBRIDGE. OK, not quite. But there are only 78 suites in Woodbridge (after removing the three for RAs). At the very least, we can probably bet that the cutoff for high-demand lines H, K, and I will shoot up toward 30/1500 or so (depending on the preference between that and EC, and whether some people decide medium-demand lines on higher floors in Woodbridge are preferable), and the EC flats cutoff may do the same. But probably all of the medium-demand lines will go to 30-point groups as well, and the dozen Watt one-bedroom apartments may go, too (last year, both of those were available for 25-point groups, and the Watt one-bedrooms even held for lucky 20-point groups). And that still doesn’t add up to 119! Seniors coming out of groups of four will eat up more of Woodbridge in Regroup, too. Rising juniors who were banking on Woodbridge, even with a good lottery number, may be out of luck. The result of all this may be that many seniors decide a former-ECX suite isn’t so bad, after all.
These are groups with students from multiple years, mostly combined junior-senior groups, but also some with several seniors and a sophomore or two shooting for former-ECX suites.
Eight Seven of these—bravo! A Shaft standing ovation for the groups of juniors that finally realized that by offering the singles in the eight-person Ruggles suites to seniors, they could guarantee their own entry. These folks will likely snap up the pair of Ruggles suites with four singles (and two doubles), and then the first six eights with two singles (and three doubles).
Six-person groups: Three of these—they’re probably off to the best of the Ruggles six-person suites. The Shaft again applauds the wisdom of pulling in a senior or two to guarantee this.
Five-person groups: If all 30 five-person 30-point groups that don’t get an all-singles option decide that former-ECX suites are the best bet, and then a lot more seniors decide in Regroup that they’d rather go here than take a lesser Woodbridge suite or chance General Selection with a mediocre number, these groups could run out of luck in a hurry. There are enough seniors to eat up ALL of the former-ECX suites, with some to spare. Will that happen? Probably not. There are 14 five-person groups with a point value of 24 or better (but less than 30). That would be about the same number of groups that got ECX last year with a sub-30 point value, so maybe that happens again this year. No guarantees, though.
Four-person groups: Three of these, maybe headed into RA suites—shouldn’t be anything else left. Otherwise, General Selection.
Three-person groups: Another one of these here. Claremont, again, if not an RA suite.
Two-person groups: Fourteen groups here, and for them we shed a tear. This used to be a safe bet for a decent Woodbridge suite or a Watt one-bedroom apartment, but probably not anymore. It’s likely going to be the last of the remaining Woodbridge suites or maybe a stray Watt one-bedroom (depending on the choices of people in Regroup—there are enough 30-pointers that these could pretty much all be gone), or dropping to General Selection (assuming a double elsewhere, such as a Watt studio double is unpalatable).
These are groups made up entirely of rising juniors.
Eight-person groups: This might get ugly. Looks like there are only going to be six eight-person suites remaining here, so the cutoff might be as early as 20/1178 or 20/1185, depending on whether a group decides to drop down somewhere. Last year, this cutoff was 20/2014—brutal. There’ll be an awful lot of juniors stampeding into General Selection. (With this in mind, there’s probably a decent chance that Housing implements a Junior Pair-Up option for next year, similar to Sophomore Pair-Up as it now exists, because it seems a bit unfair for so many juniors to be forced into General Selection without any other options.)
Seven-person groups: Five of these, which is a new one—last year, there was
n’t just a single seven-person group made up entirely of juniors. With people anticipating the growing difficulty of getting into Ruggles, this probably shouldn’t be a big surprise. Claremont sevens go to these groups if they want them.
Six-person groups: A dozen groups in this boat—people shooting for the Ruggles sixes after last year’s juniors allowed one of these to slip down to sophomores. No more. Looks like two of these are being held out for RAs and such, which would leave six, so with three possibly gone to mixed-point groups already, the cutoff here might be as soon as 20/398. If not there because someone drops, 20/1088 or one of the couple of groups shortly thereafter. UPDATE: It could be that one of these groups also gets the six-person suite on the first floor of Harmony—that might go earlier, but a lot of people don’t want to deal with the walk to Harmony. Consider that a wild card.
Five-person groups: The seven groups here were probably hoping for former-ECX suites. Doesn’t look promising, but you never know. Otherwise, General Selection.
Four-person groups: Ten more groups here—unless they’re heading for an RA suite, not going to be any choice but General Selection.
Three-person groups: Eight groups, which likely means several planning on RA suites, and probably the last Claremont three-person suite somewhere in here. (That remains the most difficult cutoff number to predict every year.)
Two-person groups: There are 76 of these groups, which is not an insane number, but it’s tough to predict where they’ll end up. We’re guessing that there won’t be anything from Woodbridge left, which means all 54 Watt studio doubles could go, along with the best from anywhere else—Nussbaum, probably. The eight doubles in the 113th Street brownstone also went here last year—probably a good bet that happens again. UPDATE: Perhaps the lone walkthrough double in River goes here, too—that’s a wild card, though.
These are more mixed-point groups, mostly combined sophomores and juniors.
Seven-person groups: With five more Claremont sevens likely available, the cutoff number looks like 14.29/1917. That’s tougher than last year—it’s possible that some group drops and another group or two sneaks in here, but the 11.43-point groups that got in here last year are probably out of luck this time around.
Four/five/six-person groups: Lumping these few groups together because unless they have an eye on a specific RA suite, it’s almost certainly straight to General Selection.
UPDATE: Two person-groups: Just four of these. They’ll likely grab Watt studio doubles if there are any left (doubtful, it seems)—if not, they’ll start the run on doubles elsewhere (see below—Nussbaum, maybe).
These are groups made up entirely of rising sophomores.
Seven-person groups: Nine of these groups that were perhaps praying for a Claremont seven-person suite to fall—those days are long gone, unfortunately. Instead, it’s the tricky navigation of which individual drops to General Selection while the other six people pick rooms in Sophomore Pair-Up (or perhaps the whole group drops to General Selection).
All the rest: Pairs and groups of eight (19 of those), six (33), five (6), four (29), and three (6) are in the same boat here. It’s possible that some of the groups of six, in particular, were hoping a large suite would fall, as one of the Ruggles ones did last year. Nothing wrong with that strategy—were it to happen, you’d be sitting pretty, and you can use Sophomore Pair-Up so you aren’t any worse off than if you’d entered as pairs to start. Regardless, doesn’t look like any large suite will be available once the 10-point round comes around. With 99 groups entered as pairs already, we might have as many as 350 groups of two picking in the 10-point round (if every large group split up and picked as part of Sophomore Pair-Up rather than dropping to General Selection, which is unlikely).
Where these groups go is anyone’s guess since it depends so much on personal preference—every dorm has its pluses and minuses, and the best rooms in a less-desirable dorm are still probably better than the worst rooms in a desirable one. Assuming Watt is totally gone this year (last year, it wasn’t), Nussbaum and Broadway are usually the next priority—it’s possible some of those will be taken by juniors this time around, though, as we said above. In that case, McBain may have the most desirable rooms to start, especially because with so many on each floor it’s the easiest place for a group of friends trying to stick together to all get neighboring rooms. Once those are gone, it’s more from Broadway and Nussbaum, and some from Schapiro. The set of doubles on the sixth floor of EC will go to a group of pairs at some point, likely one with a middling number. And Harmony and Wien will probably bring up the rear, although people who live in either place like to defend them (so don’t rule them out based on popular perception).
That’s all we’ve got. As always, hope you enjoyed all of this—more to come later this week on various intricacies in the process mentioned above but not fully spelled out. Again, questions in the comments welcome—we’ll answer everything we can and update this post if necessary.
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