Which Republican will ‘live free or die’?
Today, we’ve rounded up six professors from the Columbia and Barnard political science departments to make their picks for who they think will win in the New Hampshire primary tomorrow. The Spectator staff will also present its “house pick.” You can state your own in the comments section at the end. We’ll be running this feature throughout the primary season, so you can keep track of just how good your profs are at gauging the electoral winds.
Robert Jervis: Mitt Romney
I think Romney is likely to win in NH partly because that state is more moderate on social issues and because he is well-known from being governor next door.
Robert Lieberman: Mitt Romney
Romney will almost certainly win New Hamphshire, mostly because of the familiarity that comes from exposure as governor of Massachusetts.
Scott Minkoff: Mitt Romney
I would be pretty stunned if Romney did not take the New Hampshire primary—it is certainly his to lose. I think the more interesting question is who comes in second and third in New Hampshire. My guess: Ron “Live Free or Die” Paul comes in second and Huntsman has a surprisingly good showing and places third. I am getting the sense from the polls that Huntsman is becoming the alternative for dissatisfied Romney voters. Moreover, as Gingrich’s support has faded over the last few weeks, Huntsman’s been the one on the ground talking to voters.
Justin Phillips: Mitt Romney
I expect New Hampshire to be a fairly comfortable win for Mitt Romney. He has the home field advantage here (given the state’s proximity to Massachusetts) and has invested a great deal of political resources and time in securing a New Hampshire win.
Kenneth Prewitt: Mitt Romney
Clearly I underestimated the Santorum surge. That said, my prediction for Mitt Romney stands—but I drop my [previous] reference to Palin’s write-in. If she didn’t make the move in Iowa, she cannot elsewhere. That is, she is out of the game.
Robert Shapiro: Mitt Romney
I think Romney will win the New Hampshire primary. The important question is to what extent Gingrich, Santorum, or Perry will do well enough to give one or more of them will gain enough traction to prevent Romney from then winning decisively in South Carolina. Paul will get his continued base of support, so it’s whether the other candidates will split the votes enough to slow Romneys gains or even give them staying power to stay in for the long haul. With the proportional delegate allocations before April 1, this could drag out the outcome, possibly to the convention, though odd are against this given Romney’s support among party leaders and assuming he does well in NH, SC, and FL.
Spectator House Pick: Mitt Romney
In a unanimous decision, Spectator pitched 9 votes in favor of Mitt Romney.
Who do you expect to win? Give us your predictions in the comments.
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